Sunday, September 29, 2024 at 3:10pm EDT
Written by Greg Cantone
On Sunday afternoon, the Baltimore Orioles (89-71, 2nd in AL East) take on the Minnesota Twins (82-78, 4th in AL Cent) in the final game of their three-game set and regular season at Target Field. The Orioles have not named their starting pitcher for this contest as of the publication of this article.The Twins will counter with righty Bailey Ober (12-8,3.94 ERA), who will be making his 31st start. Baltimore clinched a playoff berth earlier in the week, securing one of the two AL Wild Card spots. The Orioles swept the Twins during their last series, played in Baltimore earlier this season. The Orioles won the first game of their current series with Minnesota on Friday. Sunday's game is scheduled for 3:10 PM Eastern time.
*Please note that results from the game played by the Orioles and the Twins played on Saturday are not included in this article.
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Orioles clinch home-field advantage
The Orioles have won three of their previous four contests, including a 7-2 victory over the Twins in Minnesota on Friday. The Orioles clinched home-field advantage in the Wild Card with the victory. Starter Cade Povich won his third game of 2024 by holding the Twins hitless for 5.2 innings. The rookie lefty finished the season with an ERA just north of five. First baseman Ryan O'Hearn smacked his 14th home run and drove in two in the win. Left fielder Colton Cowser also went deep. Orioles hurlers held the Twins to just four hits in the game. Baltimore's offense has excelled recently, scoring five runs or more in three of their previous four games.
Orioles manager Brandon Hyde on the Wild Card:
“To get home field through the wild card is huge. We’re going to be pumped to play in front of our fans. There’s going to be a lot of energy and excitement in the ballpark.”
Key injuries: No current injuries that will affect Sunday's game are being reported the Baltimore.
Twins fall to Orioles
Minnesota's playoff hopes were dashed with a 7-2 defeat at the hands of the Orioles in front of the home crowd on Friday. With the Tigers winning and the Royals losing earlier in the day, the Twins had the opportunity to keep their playoff hopes alive with a win, but they could produce only four hits against Baltimore hurlers. Starter Pablo Lopez was saddled with his 10th loss of the season, lasting 5.2 innings and allowing two earned runs on six hits and three walks. He struck out eight Baltimore batters. The Twins' pitching staff has struggled this week, allowing four runs or more to their opponents in five of their last six games.
Twins manager Rocco Baldelli on the loss:
“It was clearly beyond a disappointing way to end a run and what was, and appeared to be, a promising season that we had going.
Ober has produced a 1-0 record and allowed only one earned run over 13 innings against the Orioles. He did not factor in the decision in his prior start against them, which came at home last season. He went five innings and allowed on earned run while striking out five.
Key injuries: No current injuries that will affect Sunday's game are being reported by Minnesota.
Best Bets
Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:
Ober has struggled at home recently, going winless and producing an ERA north of five in his three previous starts. Before the current series, the Orioles had dominated the Twins, winning their previous seven matchups. They swept them at home this season and in Minnesota last year. They also won the first game of their current series, eliminating the Twins from the postseason. Twins hurlers have produced a bloated 6.71 ERA in their previous seven games against Baltimore. The Orioles have excelled while playing away from their home stadium in 2024, winning at a 56% clip. Baltimore has the edge in the pitching department, ranking 13th in the league in ERA with 3.93 versus 21st for the opponent. Orioles hurlers have also excelled in games away from their home stadium, ranking in the top 15 in road ERA. They have limited their opponents to three runs or less in four of seven games on the road. The stats and trends strongly support a Baltimore victory in the series finale.
Take the Orioles.
Prediction: Orioles
Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:
Four of the previous five matchups between these squads went over the run total, with 31 runners crossing the plate during their three-game set played earlier this year. The Orioles scored six runs or more in two of the three games they played in Minnesota during their last visit, and nine runs were scored in the first game of the current series. Both squads rank in the league's top half in multiple offensive categories, including batting average and slugging percentage, so both teams possess the tools to score quickly in bunches. The Minnesota pitching staff ranks in the league's bottom half in several key categories, so look for the Orioles to have ample scoring opportunities through the contest. The Orioles have pushed or gone over the run total in nine of their previous 10 games overall. Most signs point to a higher-scoring affair in the Minnesota on Sunday.
Take the over.
Prediction: Over
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Written By Greg Cantone , "Greg Cantone"
Greg analyzed and interpreted data and published reports on his findings that were used by some of the largest financial institutions in the United States to better understand how to service and retain their customers. He then parlayed his experience with data analysis into launching one of the most visited toy and collectible retail sites during the internet boom of the early 2000s. He now brings 20+ years of analyzing trends and data to StatSalt & Winners & Whiners.